Profiles in Optimism – Coming soon

As UCLA’s football season winds to a close, the question arises, as it has seemingly every year around this time – what to do about Karl Dorrell? Opinions vary wildly, from the open (bridling on unhealthy and obsessive) Karl Dorrell hatred by major UCLA blogging site Bruins Nation and its patron Nestor, to the defense of Karl Dorrell fostered by the Daily News’s Brian Dohn over at Inside UCLA. I fall somewhere in the middle of these two camps – I was displeased with the Dorrell hire, felt he should have gone after the first two seasons, then began to have some hope following his third year. Last season was disappointing at times, but there were signs that the improvement could be continuing. UCLA’s loss of Olson and Cowan’s early struggles might have explained some of the offensive issues, and the defense matured throughout the year into an excellent unit. I was willing to be patient, especially with the talent returning across the board this season.

The Bruins should not be fielding a six-win team at this point in the season. Losses to Notre Dame and an injury-ravaged Utah squad are inexcusable, and the fact that the Bruins still have a shot at the Rose Bowl simply highlights how painful the losses to bad Arizona and Washington State teams are – as well as the Arizona State game that could have easily been a 'W' as well. Depending on the breaks, the Bruins could end up in the Rose Bowl, true, but they could just as easily end up without any bowl invite whatsoever. And that suggests that Dorrell should go – his 5 years have provided some great moments, and I think he has the potential to grow into a serviceable head coach, but at the moment his only strength seems to be excellent special teams. That’s just not enough. Not for UCLA. Not really for anybody, except maybe Frank Beamer, who seems to have a hard-on for them.

So where does that leave us, if Dorrell is indeed gone? Well, aside from Yub Nub Celebrations over at Bruins Nation and Dump Dorrell among others, a new coach must be hired. So what I hope to do is follow in the footsteps of Brian Cook over at the canonical Michigan-centric MGoBlog. Cook, one of the best in the biz, is currently enduring his own team’s coaching search. Shortly following UM’s unbelievable upset at the hands of (now 2-loss) Appalachian State and the obliteration of the Wolverines by the Oregon Ducks (how far away those days must seem now to Ducks fans), it appeared certain that Michigan would have a new coach by 2008’s opening day. As such, Cook decided to begin a series he called Profiles in Heroism. He only got as far as, well… one (Profile in Hero?), giving a detailed breakdown of UC-Berkeley head coach Jeff Tedford. The profiles have been put on hiatus due to the heating up of the Les Miles rumor mill, followed by the recent reveal that Kirk Ferentz was the top candidate for the job.

My take on that (even if it now looks like Ferenntz won't leave Iowa):


Anyway, I thought the idea of examining coaching candidates had a lot of merit, so I figured I’d give it a shot. The design, categories of note, and execution will be similar. Though I’ll have fewer tables – Brian does love him some tables. As such, I’ll be trying to put out several of these over the next couple of weeks, until either a) I run out of candidates I personally believe to be considered as viable, b) KD is fired and a new coach is picked, or c) Dorrell is given another rollover extension and Nestor sets himself on fire in a paroxysm of rage.

Profiles in Heroism, though, seems to have the wrong sound for this search. Profiles in Heroism works as a title when you’re talking about saving a program with an unmatchable historical pedigree - cue The Victors. But when you’re looking at trying to find the right guy to take UCLA to the top of its potential, I’d go more for… (brief drumroll, prepare for anticlimactic title reveal as you’ve seen the name at the top of the post already and now I’m just trying to see how long I can make this parenthetical statement) Profiles in Optimism.

Booyah.<⁄Stu Scott>

Brief segue: yes, UCLA is around a top-25 college football program, historically. No, UCLA is not a top-10 college football program. It’s probably not even top-20 – 25ish seems about right. One split national championship a half-century ago, one VERY contentious Heisman (if you pretend otherwise you’re not just a homer, you’re ignorant of college football’s history). In an historical sense, the Bruins are probably the third most successful program just in the Pac-10, as UW has a similar level of success in-conference, and a better overall winning percentage. UCLA needs to find somebody like Sanders or Prothro, who can immediately give the program a jolt and get the Bruins back into the top 3 slots of the Pac-10 in a consistent fashion. This is something Dorrell has been unable to do. This is why Dorrell should be fired. Okay, segue over.

That actually about covers it. The plan is to go over various coaches and discuss their various pros and cons, hopefully generating a reasonably good understanding of who should be getting the most attention from the Morgan Center. First to bat will be Tricky Dicky, formerly known as ex-UCLA quarterback Rick Neuheisel. The man who threw Karl Dorrell passes, and gave him a coaching position as an assistant at Colorado and then Washington, has been oft-mentioned as a candidate, so we'll start with him.

Of course, if the miracle scenario unfolds, the Bruins end up in the Rose Bowl, and then somehow manage to WIN the thing, Dorrell’s obviously not going to go anywhere for a while, so this could all be moot.

But I wouldn’t bet on it.

State of the Program - Football

The news for the football program compared to that of the hardcourt is… Well, we’ll call it ambiguous with a chance of optimism. Though UCLA shut out the top-10 Oregon Ducks this past weekend, winning 16-0, the win hardly felt like an accomplishment. This post by Dave over at the Oregon blog Addicted to Quack may be more descriptive of what the game does to OU's Rose Bowl hopes, but it nevertheless also provides an example of what most viewers probably wished would happen to the Rose Bowl partway through the game this past Saturday. The offensive ineptitude was epic.

Oregon started its second-string QB, Brady Leaf, who went down with an injury in the first quarter. Deep reserves Cody Kempt and Justin Roper couldn’t do anything on offense, and the Oregon run game faltered as a result. Excellent OU tailback Jonathan Stewart was also playing despite a lingering injury. UCLA’s win was more a result of Oregon’s inability to move the ball without Dennis Dixon – and a number of its other offensive weapons, also lost to injury – than it was due to Bruin defensive prowess. The defense played well, to be sure; but how well is almost impossible to determine.

Meanwhile, UCLA’s air attack was nonexistent. In the first half, I mean that in a literal fashion – wait, I take that back. Nonexistence would have been preferable to the actual outcome, in which the Bruins completed more passes to Oregon’s secondary than their own wide receivers. Osaar Rasshan went 0-7, with one interception on an attempted deep pass play. Coming in at the start of the second half in a return from injury, opening day starter Ben Olson had some success, limited though it was. He went 4-10 with an INT in the back of the end zone on a spectacular play by a Duck cornerback, but did seem to provide at least the threat of a passing game. That finally opened up some running lanes for UCLA’s tailbacks, mainly Chris Markey and walk-on Craig Sheppard, the latter of whom scored the game’s only touchdown on a 21-yard run.

Not in the box score, but deserving a mention, was a trick play worthy of Bob Toledo on the opening kickoff of the second half. Markey took the kick, and then threw across the field to a wide-open Matt Slater, who raced untouched into the end zone. The play was nullified, however, because Markey threw the ball (obviously) forwards instead of backwards. The day as a whole was marked entirely by offensive ineptitude, so it was a sad moment indeed to see the by far the most successful pass of the day called back. I suppose it's really a condensed version of the story of the game, and in a macro sense, of UCLA's entire season.

And so the Bruins find themselves facing a resurgent USC Trojan team that is coming off a 20-point whipping of Arizona State and looking to return to the Rose Bowl. With this year's game being played in the Coliseum, UCLA’s chances look grim. During Karl Dorrell’s tenure at UCLA, games played on USC’s home turf have featured Trojan victories of 25, and 47 points. The two contests at the Rose Bowl were a 5-point win for USC and last season’s astonishing 13-9 upset by the Bruins. Suffice to say, UCLA plays USC far more evenly at home than on the ‘road’ (despite the fact that the L.A. Coliseum is actually closer to Westwood than the Rose Bowl).

The Bruins look to a hopefully healthy Ben Olson to lead them against the Trojans, an opportunity he missed last season. If Olson can’t play, UCLA turns next to either last week’s starter Rasshan, or last season’s hero Patrick Cowan, who may be available coming off his own injury. For UCLA to have any chance in the game, they must establish some sort of offensive consistency early. Probably through the passing game, where the Trojan defense is the "most" (finger quotes sadly necessary) suspect. Otherwise the Bruins are in major trouble, as expecting to hold USC’s offense to less than 10 points two times in a row seems the unlikeliest of outcomes.

With both the football and basketball teams facing major tests this weekend, it will be interesting to view how the two programs do, given the upward trend of basketball and the general downward spiral of football.

State of the Program - Basketball

So. Back again – once more, hopefully for longer than a couple days. Life intervenes. Let’s see if this’ll stick this time. Plenty has happened since I last posted, so let’s try and get up to speed from the point I left off (end of October).

Let’s start with the good news. And, where UCLA basketball is concerned, there’s plenty of news indeed, most of it good. The Bruins are the top-ranked team in college basketball, at least as far as the coaches are concerned, ahead of the North Carolina Tar Heels. UCLA remains #2 in the AP poll, behind UNC.

Though the Bruins have put in a number of victories against sub-par competition, they have a pair of solid non-conference wins already. Both came during the CBE Classic, held in Kansas City. In the CBE semi-final, the Bruins struggled in the first half before jumping to a 20-point lead in an eventual 12-point victory over a good Maryland team from the ACC. Following that, UCLA somehow managed a come-from-behind nailbiter against top-15 opponent Michigan State in the CBE finals.

All this success has come despite the absence of preseason All-American point guard Darren Collison, and 3-point specialist Michael Roll (not to mention sophomore forward James Keefe). The injury toll continues to rise, with F/C Alfred Aboya going down due to a fractured orbital bone during UCLA’s win over Yale. However, relief appears on the horizon. In addition to having the junior forward cleared to potentially play as soon as tonight’s game against George Washington, Collison appears to be nearing a return. Roll’s return date is still uncertain, though likely in the near future, while Keefe will be out until at least the start of conference play, if not longer.

And if there have been plenty of injuries, the silver lining is the increased minutes for many of UCLA’s younger talent, which could pay off handsomely down the road. The heavy workload and on-court success for top freshman recruit Kevin Love comes as no surprise, but several other UCLA reserves have received key minutes. Notably, sophomore point guard Russell Westbrook has offered solid minutes in replacing Collison, averaging over 12 points and 6 assists a game thus far.

The Bruins face a key test this week, with Texas, the #8 team in both polls, coming to Pauley on Sunday. Ken Pomeroy’s excellent writing has moved over to Basketball Prospectus, but his statistical wizardry can still be found at KenPom.com. And according to his tempo-free stats, Texas has been the most effective offensive team in the country so far, scoring over 1.3 points per possession (the Bruins score a little less than 1.1). Texas's Effective FG% is over 65% - for comparison, the Bruins are at 50%. A brief explanation of the stat can be found here. The Longhorns will be an excellent test for UCLA’s now-trademark defensive intensity, and should the Bruins prevail in that contest they will almost certainly enter conference play undefeated. And even with a loss, UCLA will begin the Pac-10 season as a heavy favorite, challenged only by Washington State. Because all the other major conference contenders suffered surprising upsets in the early going, the Pac-10 seems weaker than initially advertised. The UCLA Bruins, however, do not.