October 1, 2010

UCLA Passing Inquisition - Texas 2010

Though I've explained all this in the PI FAQ, since this is brand-new I'll summarize some important terms for the upcoming post here. After each play, you'll see something along the lines of (CA+, 3). The first item is how I classified that specific pass - the meanings of each classification are here. This will eventually go in the Chart of Hope, the running tally of the entire season's pass results. The second item is what I rated the catch difficulty for the wide receiver. Higher is easier. More specifics can be found here.

Also of note: I will no longer be identifying when UCLA is in a Pistol set-up. If necessary, I will note when they are NOT.

Yard Line Down Distance Player Yards
UCLA 32 2 8 Scramble 3
This route is a designed play-action rollout to the short side of the field. Presley is coming on a drag here, which is well covered. No other routes have a chance to develop, as there is a protection breakdown by Harris, who doesn't get into the d-end at all even though Prince is rolling to his side of the field. Though Prince dodges that tackle, he's already flushed and has to run, and the LB chasing Presley comes up to tackle. Morrell doesn't really make any effort to block once it's clear that he's covered, though a Texas DB probably would have tackled at about the same point anyway. (TA, N/A)
UCLA 35 3 5 Fumble -16
Beautiful individual stunt by the Texas DL, as he fakes Savage into sliding the wrong way (and blocking nobody at all), then blows past Sheller like he's not even there. UCLA was looking to run a little curl route at the sticks - gotta give the QB enough time for one of those, as it's a quick route. This is on the line. Would have liked to have seen a replay to check if Prince's arm was coming forward - they lost a ton of yds on the fumble, though they're lucky to at least get the ball back. (PR, N/A)
Drive Notes: The Bruins have to punt, though they do move the ball reasonably well until the sack/fumble (off. recovery). Both of these attempted pass plays were swarmed well by the Texas D's speed - but UCLA will eventually learn to make that speed work against the Longhorns. Ayers gets his own sack/fumble on the ensuing drive, and UCLA will take over deep in UT territory.
Yard Line Down Distance Player Yards
Tex 20 2 10 Blergh INC
Hurr durr. I'll be honest, I hate this call. "You only hate it because it doesn't work." No, I hate it because you're running this play on a short field, so the defensive backs are all much closer to the line of scrimmage than they would be if this was closer to midfield. Barr comes across behind the line, takes the sweep handoff, then flips it to Rosario. Nelson, instead of continuing the reverse, throws the ball to Prince, who has gone out as a receiver. The pass is over his head (a little revenge by Rosario for Prince's numerous overthrows?), and the ball drops to the turf. Even if caught this goes for less than 10 yards anyway, and gets Prince blown up on a tackle. I'd also note these tend not to work as well when the defense has to key on the QB anyway. Like in the Pistol. Oops. (Not charted.)
Tex 20 3 10 Sack -11
UCLA had a ton of trouble with Texas's DEs early on in this game. Here they both simply run past the tight ends (UCLA is in a 2-TE set) and converge on Prince, who has taken a very deep drop due to the play-action fake. I've seen Fauria come in for a lot of heat on his non-blocking here, but Harkey is really no better (and Harkey has inside help from Harris to boot). I might also add that the officials give an absolutely -brutal- spot on this play. You can see Prince get hit just behind the 28. Prince is hit backwards, and lands at the 31. The ball is eventually placed almost at the 32 (?!), and Forbath misses the FG. I was pretty sure the rule was forward progress, not the reverse. That's 3-4 extra yards, which might have made the difference between a make and a miss. It seems petty to talk about it now, but on the road in a scoreless game following a huge turnover, this could have been a major point of momentum to come away scoreless. I could see the officials claiming that Prince gets out of the tackle, but Jeffcoat (the guy who first hits him at the 28) is the one credited with the tackle, soooo... (PR, N/A)
Drive Notes: After such a great turnover, this was pretty painful to come away with nothing here. The trick-pass/sack combo could have been particularly devastating - and it seemed like the rout might be on after Franklin fumbles as soon as the Bruins get the ball back. But the D holds UT to a FG.
Yard Line Down Distance Player Yards
UCLA 42 1 10 Harkey INC
The Bruins are almost to midfield here before they try a pass - Prince's first attempt of the game that he actually gets off. Harkey has his traditional flat-out drop on a short pass. This is set up pretty well, too, with Barr out in front ready to block for him. Doesn't matter. (CA, 3)
UCLA 43 3 9 Scramble 6
*Note - Power Gun formation* We see Coleman offset behind and to the side of Prince, the rare non-Pistol formation. This is kind of a power shotgun setup, and they used it reasonably often during the game. It's less common than the Pistol, but I'll note where it comes up. It kind of signals where this play goes (rollout to Coleman's side), though he's in great position to help on a block after Harris's man gets by him. It's a run-pass option, and with good coverage, Prince chooses to take off instead of throwing. (TA, N/A)
Drive Notes: UCLA's offense does a good job getting the ball out of their end of the field - this will pay dividends when Westgate strips their returner, setting UCLA up inside Texas's 5-yard line.
Yard Line Down Distance Player Yards
Tex 1 2 Goal Marvray 1
*Note - Power Gun formation* Once again Coleman is offset from Prince, to the side he's rolling. UCLA has a run counter to this (Prince hands off and the back heads to the other side of the field), but I'd like to see some sort of a pass counter to this as well. As it stands, teams are just going to sell out to the bootleg-side once Prince gets past the RB. Whatever. They get enough blocking, and Marvray makes a great cut. This is exactly where the ball should go, and it's an easy 6. I'm marking this catch as slightly more difficult, because it requires Marvray to make a good effort to keep himself in-bounds on the catch. (CA, 2)
Drive Notes: They absolutely needed a TD here, and it's encouraging that they got it through the air. Prince's line at this point was 1/2 for 1 yard and a TD. Heh. UCLA stuffs Texas on a 4th-and-3 to start their next drive with great field position. Huge play by Tony Dye.
Yard Line Down Distance Player Yards
Tex 26 2 17 Barr 4
Ouch. The CB over Barr comes with a blitz, and Prince recognizes and throws hot to Barr. That's the good news. The bad news is that the UT safety comes flying in and absolutely levels Barr after a short gain. He does a good job to hang on to the ball. Not sure what else UCLA could do here - nice read, right throw, just a good play and hit by Texas. Maybe Prince gets this out a tiny bit quicker, but that's really picking nits. Because Barr has to hang on after a pretty solid hit, I'm recording this (CA, 2)
Tex 21 3 12 Scramble -1
*Note - Power Gun formation* This is that same shotgun offset, and once more Prince rolls to the RB's side with a run-pass option. Nice motion in to block by Presley. I think this is just good coverage - Texas has seen this formation a few times now, and they're ready for it. They leave a man to spy, and both safeties roll over to that side of the field. This is particularly important because Marvray actually breaks behind his man defender, but the safety from the opposite side is now behind the play and able to cover the broken-off route. There has to be some sort of credible threat to throw to the other end of the field out of this roll. (TA, N/A)
Drive Notes: Forbath hits a field goal to put the Bruins up 10-3. Good job to come away with points off the turnover, though another TD would have been nice. The offense has started to move a bit more in this quarter now. Texas has a fumble of its own at the start of their next drive, and now the Bruins are looking to put down the hammer.
Yard Line Down Distance Player Yards
Tex 32 2 8 Barr INC
They don't. This is a quick-hitter in the flats, which I think may be off a hot-read, as Barr is totally uncovered at the start of this play (UT brings 5, including the weakside ILB). You can already see how concerned Texas is with UCLA's inside run game, as their ILB doesn't try to slide underneath this route at all, preferring to spy in case there's an RB or QB draw. This wouldn't have been a huge gain, but it would have brought the Bruins close to a first down. Prince throws it high and behind Barr's curl, and it's tipped dangerously into the air before falling harmlessly to the turf. This is the same type of throw, and same type of tip, as Prince's INT last week thrown behind Rosario. (IN, 1)
Tex 32 3 8 Thigpen INC
Bunch formation. Prince is flushed from the pocket as Texas overloads the strong side, and Harkey can't keep up with Texas's defensive end. Prince rolls playside and then throws the ball away as he doesn't see anybody. If you look, you can see Embree break behind the safety on the other side of the field - he's got 1-on-1 coverage with a half-step, but Prince has already rolled the other direction. There is no way in the world he even attempts this throw, though if he'd stayed in the pocket he might have been able to make it (if given the time). He tosses the ball out of bounds in order to stay in FG range. I wonder if he could have gotten it to Thigpen. I guess this is (TA, 0).
Drive Notes: Forbath hits another FG, and it's now 13-3. Going 3-and-out after a turnover isn't great, but they still manage to get points from it. This is probably Prince's worst series, with a terrible throw and then another called pass play that he might have converted with more patience or a better read. The Longhorns get Akeem-ed, though, and the Bruins AGAIN pick up great field position for the 4th straight drive (Tex 4, UCLA 41, Tex 33, Tex 42). The Bruins surely will step on Texas's throat now... right?
Yard Line Down Distance Player Yards
Tex 21 2 8 Fumble N/A
Wrong. This is the same CB blitz Prince avoided via hot route earlier. This time he doesn't pick it up (despite the CB telegraphing it as soon as Prince does the silent count 'step'). The issue is compounded as Franklin steps forward like he's going to get a fake handoff, so he never glances to the blind side. Rosario does the right thing and immediately turns for a quick pass, with acres of green in front of him. Prince, however, has locked on to the three receivers on the strong side of the formation, and is in the process of throwing as he gets hammered. Strip. Fumble. Texas ball. If Prince even so much as glances away from his primary receiver here he spots this, so I'm going to call this (BR, N/A) - though the caveat here is that this might have been called from the booth.
Drive Notes: Texas threatens but does not score before the half. 13-3 UCLA after 30 minutes. That's good - but after looking at all the missed opportunities, the offense definitely left some points on the field that could have made this game much safer (a 10-point lead on the road against a super-talented team isn't exactly a guaranteed win). Still - a lead's a lead.
Yard Line Down Distance Player Yards
UCLA 20 1 10 Presley 6
The Bruins begin the second half with a throw, presumably to back Texas off the line just a bit. Presley lines up in the slot, and just runs a quick out. Easy pitch-and-catch for solid first-down yardage. I like this. UCLA should be able to get this play consistently given their combination of athletes at the skill position and a good run game to keep defenses honest. (CA, 3)
Drive Notes: UCLA proceeds to march the rest of the way down the field on nothing but run-plays. Touchdown. UCLA up by 17. Really?! The Bruins begin just -pounding- the ball on offense. Texas and UCLA trade punts, and the Longhorns get themselves a field goal to get within two TDs. On the ensuing kickoff, Smith takes the ball to midfield, and 3 plays later the Bruins are in the end zone again! 27-6, Bruins! UCLA ends UT's next drive by stuffing a Texas 4th down try inside the Bruins 25-yd line.
Yard Line Down Distance Player Yards
UCLA 38 3 4 Rosario 6
After having the drive extended by a UT substitution penalty on 4th down, the Bruins are in 'kill clock' mode here. However, they need to move the chains, so they return to the air after something like 22 straight running plays. Rosario motions across the formation, then turns and heads back towards his original side, and the ball is snapped just as he clears the left tackle. Prince locks on to him, but manages to get the ball out quickly as Rosario comes out of his break, allowing him to catch and turn up the field to get beyond the first-down marker. I can't tell if this is partly due to defensive indifference - the DB covering Nelson is in press-man coverage at first, but by the time the ball is snapped he's 7(!) yards off the line, on a 3rd-and-4. Still, nice easy completion for the first. (CA, 3)
UCLA 48 3 4 Rosario 10
Deja vu - another 3rd-and-5 after two runs goes to Rosario for another first down. Once again Prince immediately locks onto Rosario at the snap - the coaches are clearly only asking him to make one read on these pass plays. This is a pretty good hook-up - the coverage stays in press-man this time, but Prince puts the ball exactly where he should, and with perfect timing. I'm going to emphasize this again, because it's one of the few (if any) times he's done that this year - perfect timing. The ball arrives almost immediately as Rosario makes his turn. If this is a half-second later, the DB has an easy PBU, and a shot at a pick-6. A half-second sooner, and it hits Nelson in the back. These are the sorts of pass plays that the UCLA passing offense just hasn't made so far this season. (DO, 3)
Drive Notes: This drive was one of the best UCLA has had all season, even if it didn't result in points. They absolutely controlled the clock, and effectively ended the game by hanging on to the ball for well over half the quarter. By this point, Texas simply doesn't have enough time remaining (barring something extremely unusual). The Bruins give up a garbage-time TD (Texas misses a 2-pt conversion), then score one of their own, to leave the final score at 34-12, Bruins. End of the game.

Chart of Hope:
 Opponent   DO   CA   MA   IN   BR   TA   BA   PR   DSR 
KSU 2 13 (2) 2 6 (1) 5 - 1 (1) 3 46% (13/28)
Stanford 1 10 (2) - 2 2 - - 2 60% (9/15)
Houston 1 11 (2) 1 3 1 1 1 (1) 1 59% (10/17)
Texas 1 5 - 1 1 4 - 2 43% (6/14)

Remember, DSR, or "Downfield Success Rate," is a measure of the number of catchable passes he throws down the field (DO+CA) out of all his downfield passes (DO+CA+MA+IN+BR+TA+PR) - balls batted at the LOS don't count, nor do screen plays.

This Game Totals
Player 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3
Presley - - - 1/1 - - 0/1 2/3
Embree - - - - 7 1/3 - 2/3
Coleman----1- -2/2
Smith - - --1 -0/11/1
Marvray--1/1- 41/12/32/3
Franklin--- --0/11/11/1
Barr-0/1 1/1-10/32/32/2
Harkey---0/1 --1/31/3
Thigpen1- -- 1--1/1


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